The demand for international phosphate fertilizer market continues, and prices are expected to remain firm!

Date：

2023-06-27 11:01

Recently, the bidding for phosphate fertilizer by the private sector in Bangladesh has ended, with a total bidding volume of 1.94 million tons and a winning price of 585-599 US dollars per ton of CFR. Previously, some buyers had been on the sidelines due to the high shipping costs (approximately $45 per ton). The bidding in Bangladesh has effectively digested some inventory in the current market, and industry insiders have positive expectations for future demand for phosphate fertilizers. The bidding in Bangladesh may drive up the price of ammonium phosphate in South Asia, and the price of diammonium phosphate in Pakistan may rise to $590-600 per ton of CFR.
India's phosphate fertilizer imports are still in a stalemate, with a total of 4.1 million tons of diammonium phosphate imported from April to September last year. However, during the same period this year, only 1.9 million tons were imported, indicating a huge potential demand. However, limited by the highest retail price in India, in theory, Indian importers must import at a price below $560 per ton of CFR to ensure revenue, which is much lower than international prices. Therefore, at the current price level, it is difficult for India's import demand to be released unless the Indian government increases the maximum retail price of diammonium.
On the Brazilian side, due to the increase in transportation costs caused by the rise in oil prices, the CFR price of monoammonium phosphate has increased from $655/ton to $665-680/ton. In addition, the continuously rising food prices have also supported the price of monoammonium. Brazil is currently facing the most severe drought in over 90 years. The severe drought will affect corn production in the central and southern regions of Brazil, further supporting the rise in corn prices.
At present, some export orders are scheduled after June, and some manufacturers have even begun to contact and negotiate export orders for July. In the near future, the price of phosphate fertilizer will remain stable and positive, and it is not ruled out that there may be a slight fluctuation in international prices. However, the overall expectation is relatively strong, and the focus still needs to be on the international market dynamics.
It is expected that the demand for phosphate fertilizer in the international market will continue in the Future International, and the price will remain high. India and Pakistan are expected to import diammonium to meet domestic demand in the future. At present, India's inventory of diammonium is still at a relatively low level, with limited domestic production and huge potential import demand. In addition, the international food price will also support the price of phosphate fertilizer, and the international phosphate fertilizer price will continue to be strong in the Future International.